With nearly two decades of experience helping clients buy and sell homes across the GTA, I’ve seen firsthand how tax incentives can impact the real estate market. Ontario’s temporary HST relief was a clear example—by reducing tax burdens, we saw a boost in affordability, market activity, and buyer confidence. Yet, the challenges for builders remain significant: higher material and labour costs, lengthy approval processes, and a web of regulations continue to slow progress, with taxes, fees, and levies often weighing heavily on new developments. The rollout delays of the temporary program also created uncertainty, leaving builders, developers, and buyers waiting on the sidelines while housing activity struggled to gain momentum. Highrise condo projects felt this the most, as their extended timelines made short-term policies less effective. Many in the industry believe that moving toward permanent HST relief—ideally removing the tax on new homes—could make a real difference. It’s a crucial step if Ontario hopes to reach the goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031. As someone deeply invested in our communities, I’m always watching for shifts like these that can shape opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.

Buyer competition across the GTA continues to ease, making this one of the quieter periods we’ve seen in local real estate. In Mid-Q3, only 2% of qualifying neighbourhoods entered overbidding territory—down from 3% earlier in the quarter. Out of 267 neighbourhoods, 97% saw homes sell below asking, and just 1% sold at asking price, which means bidding wars were few and far between. The gap between condo and single-family home sales keeps shrinking as well: 95% of neighbourhoods with enough single-family transactions were underbid, compared to 98% for condos. Of the 4,200 homes sold in Mid-Q3, 79% changed hands below the listed price, up slightly from 78% in Early-Q3 as single-family homes followed the broader trend of softened demand. As someone who has worked with buyers and sellers throughout the GTA for nearly two decades, these numbers highlight the new landscape—one where patience and local expertise can make all the difference.

Seeing the latest numbers from Mid-Q3 2026, it’s clear the GTA market is continuing to evolve. The average home selling price now sits at $993K, down about 3% year-over-year—making things a bit more favorable overall for buyers. For condo apartments, the average price came in at $618K, dipping below last year’s mark. What really stands out is how sharply micro-condos—those under 500 sq-ft—have taken a hit. These smallest units are proving hardest to sell, as more buyers shift their focus toward larger homes with greater long-term appeal.

In Early-Q3, nearly every GTA neighbourhood with at least five condo sales—about 98%—saw condos closing below list price. That’s opened up more negotiating power for active buyers than we’ve seen in some time. Even single-family homes experienced underbidding in roughly 92% of neighbourhoods, but condos, especially the investor-oriented ones, have been particularly sensitive as investor demand has softened.

After nearly two decades working in residential and luxury real estate throughout Mississauga, Oakville, and the GTA, I’ve seen how quickly market dynamics can shift. If you’re navigating your next move—whether buying your first condo or considering a change in your portfolio—understanding these trends is key to making informed decisions.

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It’s been interesting to watch low-rise new homes in the GTA gain momentum, thanks in large part to the impact of the HST rebate program. Recently, there's been a noticeable increase in buyer activity for these properties—a shift that’s very much in line with what I’ve been seeing in the Mississauga and Oakville markets. Builders have responded by steadily introducing more low-rise options, which has helped maintain stability and kept prices from climbing too quickly. Meanwhile, the condo market hasn’t been able to keep pace, as construction timing requirements have made it tougher for that segment to benefit in the same way. While gross prices didn’t reflect any rebates directly, eligible buyers could take advantage of added savings, making homeownership in the GTA a bit more accessible. As someone who’s worked in both residential and luxury segments for nearly two decades, I can appreciate how programs like this not only support buyers but also contribute to the region’s economic strength. There’s hope that similar support will eventually extend to the condo sector to help balance the broader market.